This post provides another summary from an interview I conducted as part of my dissertation research and is included in the Appendix of the final,now completed version. I have known Dr. Bruce since 1998 when I was a student of his at Georgetown.
Continue Reading→Tag: Uncertainty
For the Romney Campaign, was Election Night an Intelligence Failure?
I usually limit my writing to international relations rather than discuss domestic politics. However, I found the election results quite interesting when viewed through the lens of intelligence studies and the international system. The fact that the Romney campaign appeared to be legitimately surprised by the outcome reveals important patterns about the use and non-use of intelligence for those seeking to understand international relations and policy more generally. In what follows, I operate under the assumption that the Romney Campaign was indeed confident they would the election, and through a combination of psychological and organizational mechanisms left themselves vulnerable to surprise on election night. It is entirely possible that in time, new materials will come out that show the campaign to have been more reserved and cautious internally than currently believed.
Continue Reading→Rethinking Agent-Based Modeling and Microlevel Inference
In preparing for the International Studies Association Annual Conference, I’ve been thinking about Agent-Based Models (ABM) and how they are employed in thinking about policy and decision-making. My assessment is that that community has only scratched the surface of the possible with respect to modeling, and is currently employing ABM in ways that don’t really accomplish the research goals or potential for exploring micro-macro linkages to the extent possible and necessary.
Continue Reading→COMMENTS ON RICHARD DANZIG’S DRIVING IN THE DARK Part 2
A while ago I made some comments on Richard Danzig’s CNAS piece, Driving in the Dark. It had been my intention to follow-up that post quickly, but as often happens, other demands rose to the top of the stack. For the sake of completeness, I wanted to follow up with some additional thoughts on the second part of his paper.
Continue Reading→Commemorating Desmond Saunders-Newton
Today, November 24th, marks the one year anniversary of the passing of Desmond Saunders-Newton, a dear friend and mentor who left this world far too soon. Dez, as he was known, possessed a unique combination of vision and ability to think big, and yet connect with people on the most human and personal of terms. He first introduced me to complexity theory, Agent-Based Modeling (ABM), and computation in general, creating the lens through which I see the international system through. I don’t fully know how to characterize my years of working with Dez, or the depth of the pain felt by his absence, but wanted to acknowledge his role in my life in some way on this Thanksgiving holiday.
Continue Reading→Computational Social Science Seminar Posted
Last Friday I gave a presentation on the challenges of strategic intelligence, and how Agent-Based Modeling fits within and can improve current analytic tradecraft. The slides have now been added to the website, and can be found on the Papers and Presentations page. The slides are somewhat sparse and are mostly talking points. There is a layer in the file that contains speakers notes that contain more information and bibliographic credit where graphics, quotes, and images were taken from other sources. Likewise, the abstract for the presentation can be seen on the Department of Computational Social Science website here.
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