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Posts Tagged ‘Strategy’

Interview with Jennifer Sims

On August 20th, 2012 I interviewed JS to discuss her theory of adaptive realism and the intelligence community more generally. As with other interviews, our conversation was far reaching, open and discursive. Thus, the following summary presents several key points that came up in conversation rather than provide an exhaustive transcript of our exchange. Read the rest of this entry »

Computational Social Science Seminar Posted

Last Friday I gave a presentation on the challenges of strategic intelligence, and how Agent-Based Modeling fits within and can improve current analytic tradecraft. The slides have now been added to the website, and can be found on the Papers and Presentations page. The slides are somewhat sparse and are mostly talking points. There is a layer in the file that contains speakers notes that contain more information and bibliographic credit where graphics, quotes, and images were taken from other sources. Likewise, the abstract for the presentation can be seen on the Department of Computational Social Science website here. Read the rest of this entry »

Comments on Richard Danzig’s Driving in the Dark

Last month the Center for New American Security (CNAS) published an excellent report by Richard Danzig called Driving in the Dark: Ten Propositions About Prediction and National Security. While much of what has been said in this report has been discussed elsewhere, I believe that this report provides one of the most coherent, complete, and compact discussions regarding how to cope with inevitable failures of prediction in national security policy. This posting discusses three interesting points that Danzig makes in the first half of his report. A follow-up posting will continue by examining the second half of the report. Read the rest of this entry »

Rock-Paper-Scissors and Arms Races Part 6

Previous posts had examined the replicator equation as the basis of agent behavior in an arms race defined by a game of rock-paper-scissors (RPS). This post begins a follow-on examination regarding the use of best-response as an alternative behavior or strategy on the part of competing agents. In some ways, best-response may be unrealistic with respect to how agents can adapt, especially if they are capable of making large jumps or changes to strategies in short-periods of time that are not reflective of real-world organizations. However, in other ways, the strategy is quite realistic for social actors because it affords them opportunities to revive dead or eliminated strategies when suitable while the biologically based replicator loses them forever once extinct. Read the rest of this entry »

Evolved Threat Wargame Observations

Last week I had the opportunity to participate in the 4th and final wargame in a series examining the future of warfare. The game itself presented a fairly standard gaming scenario, which proved to be quite challenging given the likely capabilities of red (adversary) forces and the political situation that framed the conflict. Read the rest of this entry »

Book Review: The National Security Enterprise

Roger George and Harvey Rishikof’s The National Security Enterprise: Navigating the Labyrinth is a unique book. It provides unprecedented breadth and depth regarding the organization and functions of the national security community, or national security enterprise (NSE) as the authors call it. Read the rest of this entry »

The Death of Usama Bin Laden Part 3

This is the third, and last posting about the killing of Usama Bin Laden (UBL) for a while (hopefully) before I return to more theoretical questions about arms races and modeling. Continuing my earlier posting, I believe there are many significant and complex issues that are just coming into focus and many more on the horizon regarding what comes next in US/Pakistan relations, the deterrence of terrorists, and the future of US strategy. Read the rest of this entry »

Rock-Paper-Scissors and Arms Races Part 2

This posting will examine some of the basic properties of a mathematical model of RPS implemented in Excel that employs the replicator equation as a way of examining the dynamics of innovation within arms races. Read the rest of this entry »

Rock-Paper-Scissors and Arms Races Part 1

I have always been fascinated by military innovation and they ways in which individuals and organizations perceive and adapt to threats and opportunities in their environments. One of the important lessons from game theory, biology, and military history is the fragility of dominant positions – there is rarely a dominant strategy that trumps all possible options available to one’s adversaries. Read the rest of this entry »
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