On August 20th, 2012 I interviewed JS to discuss her theory of adaptive realism and the intelligence community more generally. As with other interviews, our conversation was far reaching, open and discursive. Thus, the following summary presents several key points that came up in conversation rather than provide an exhaustive transcript of our exchange.
Continue Reading→Tag: Strategy
Rethinking Agent-Based Modeling and Microlevel Inference
In preparing for the International Studies Association Annual Conference, I’ve been thinking about Agent-Based Models (ABM) and how they are employed in thinking about policy and decision-making. My assessment is that that community has only scratched the surface of the possible with respect to modeling, and is currently employing ABM in ways that don’t really accomplish the research goals or potential for exploring micro-macro linkages to the extent possible and necessary.
Continue Reading→Computational Social Science Seminar Posted
Last Friday I gave a presentation on the challenges of strategic intelligence, and how Agent-Based Modeling fits within and can improve current analytic tradecraft. The slides have now been added to the website, and can be found on the Papers and Presentations page. The slides are somewhat sparse and are mostly talking points. There is a layer in the file that contains speakers notes that contain more information and bibliographic credit where graphics, quotes, and images were taken from other sources. Likewise, the abstract for the presentation can be seen on the Department of Computational Social Science website here.
Continue Reading→Comments on Richard Danzig’s Driving in the Dark
Last month the Center for New American Security (CNAS) published an excellent report by Richard Danzig called Driving in the Dark: Ten Propositions About Prediction and National Security. While much of what has been said in this report has been discussed elsewhere, I believe that this report provides one of the most coherent, complete, and compact discussions regarding how to cope with inevitable failures of prediction in national security policy. This posting discusses three interesting points that Danzig makes in the first half of his report. A follow-up posting will continue by examining the second half of the report.
Continue Reading→Rock-Paper-Scissors and Arms Races Part 6
Previous posts had examined the replicator equation as the basis of agent behavior in an arms race defined by a game of rock-paper-scissors (RPS). This post begins a follow-on examination regarding the use of best-response as an alternative behavior or strategy on the part of competing agents. In some ways, best-response may be unrealistic with respect to how agents can adapt, especially if they are capable of making large jumps or changes to strategies in short-periods of time that are not reflective of real-world organizations. However, in other ways, the strategy is quite realistic for social actors because it affords them opportunities to revive dead or eliminated strategies when suitable while the biologically based replicator loses them forever once extinct.
Continue Reading→Evolved Threat Wargame Observations
Last week I had the opportunity to participate in the 4th and final wargame in a series examining the future of warfare. The game itself presented a fairly standard gaming scenario, which proved to be quite challenging given the likely capabilities of red (adversary) forces and the political situation that framed the conflict.
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