This posting will examine some of the basic properties of a mathematical model of RPS implemented in Excel that employs the replicator equation as a way of examining the dynamics of innovation within arms races.
Continue Reading→Rock-Paper-Scissors and Arms Races Part 1
I have always been fascinated by military innovation and they ways in which individuals and organizations perceive and adapt to threats and opportunities in their environments. One of the important lessons from game theory, biology, and military history is the fragility of dominant positions – there is rarely a dominant strategy that trumps all possible options available to one’s adversaries.
Continue Reading→Philosophy of Science, Models, and Policy
I got into modeling and simulation after being trained in strategic studies and intelligence analysis. When I was first exposed to Agent-Based Modeling, I recognized it as an opportunity to extrapolate from the particular features of individual case studies, allow for the rerunning of history or make comparisons between alternative competing historical accounts.
Continue Reading→Gender and National Security Decision-Making
I had a very interesting conversation with a friend today on the role of gender in national security decision-making. Her argument was that was that the world would be a more peaceful place if more women were in senior positions within the national security establishment.
Continue Reading→ISA Panel on Saddam’s Iraq
I’ll likely need to cover more of the conference, and particular lessons for ABM over the next several weeks. For the time being, I’ve been thinking a lot about one panel on the documents being held at a new center at the National Defense University – The Conflict Records Research Center.
Continue Reading→Early Observations from ISA 2011
After two days at the International Studies Association Annual Conference (ISA) in Montreal, several interesting themes have emerged. Rather than mention panel by panel what I’ve seen, I figured I’d summarize my general impressions and provide some highlights at the mid-point of the conference. I’ll caveat everything by noting that the conference is a huge gathering and any attendee can only see a small portion of the total offerings. So, my observations are necessarily constrained by my choices of panels and side-discussions – I could easily have missed something.
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