I’ve just participated in a two day workshop in Vienna hosted by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) called Security in the age of Systemic Risk: Tactics and Options for Dealing with Femtorisks and Beyond. This intimidating title masked the openness and interdisciplinary character of the workshop, which brought together a variety of scholars and practitioners working in the areas of complexity science, risk analysis, decision sciences, mathematics, and international relations, continuing the conceptual and community development that started in 2008 at the Santa Fe Institute looking at complexity and international relations.
Continue Reading→Book Review: The National Security Enterprise
Roger George and Harvey Rishikof’s The National Security Enterprise: Navigating the Labyrinth is a unique book. It provides unprecedented breadth and depth regarding the organization and functions of the national security community, or national security enterprise (NSE) as the authors call it.
Continue Reading→Rock-Paper-Scissors and Arms Races Part 3
This post extends the mathematical model of the Rock-Paper-Scissors (RPS) game analyzed in earlier postings (here and here). In order to overcome the limitations of the mathematical model, an Agent-Based-Model (ABM) was developed that contains the essential elements and assumptions of the original model. However, by changing the formalism, new opportunities to extend the model become possible.
Continue Reading→The Death of Usama Bin Laden Part 3
This is the third, and last posting about the killing of Usama Bin Laden (UBL) for a while (hopefully) before I return to more theoretical questions about arms races and modeling. Continuing my earlier posting, I believe there are many significant and complex issues that are just coming into focus and many more on the horizon regarding what comes next in US/Pakistan relations, the deterrence of terrorists, and the future of US strategy.
Continue Reading→The Death of Usama Bin Laden Part 2
It had been my intention to return to the development and exploration of the rock-paper-scissors model but the continuing news about Usama Bin Laden’s (UBL or OBL which appears to be the official spelling) death has me fascinated. After nearly a week’s passage, I’ve found several of the developments increasingly interesting and the number of issues at play continuously expanding. This is the first of two postings on the aftermath of the SEALs assault on UBL’s compound.
Continue Reading→The Death of Usama Bin Laden
The news of Usama Bin Laden’s (UBL) death as a result of US military operations casts light on the successes, failures, and uncertainties in the War on Terror, Long War, or whatever names that people choose to attach to US military engagements in the aftermath of the 9/11/ attacks.
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