This is the third, and last posting about the killing of Usama Bin Laden (UBL) for a while (hopefully) before I return to more theoretical questions about arms races and modeling. Continuing my earlier posting, I believe there are many significant and complex issues that are just coming into focus and many more on the horizon regarding what comes next in US/Pakistan relations, the deterrence of terrorists, and the future of US strategy.
Continue Reading→Category: International Relations
The Death of Usama Bin Laden Part 2
It had been my intention to return to the development and exploration of the rock-paper-scissors model but the continuing news about Usama Bin Laden’s (UBL or OBL which appears to be the official spelling) death has me fascinated. After nearly a week’s passage, I’ve found several of the developments increasingly interesting and the number of issues at play continuously expanding. This is the first of two postings on the aftermath of the SEALs assault on UBL’s compound.
Continue Reading→The Death of Usama Bin Laden
The news of Usama Bin Laden’s (UBL) death as a result of US military operations casts light on the successes, failures, and uncertainties in the War on Terror, Long War, or whatever names that people choose to attach to US military engagements in the aftermath of the 9/11/ attacks.
Continue Reading→Rock-Paper-Scissors and Arms Races Part 2
This posting will examine some of the basic properties of a mathematical model of RPS implemented in Excel that employs the replicator equation as a way of examining the dynamics of innovation within arms races.
Continue Reading→Rock-Paper-Scissors and Arms Races Part 1
I have always been fascinated by military innovation and they ways in which individuals and organizations perceive and adapt to threats and opportunities in their environments. One of the important lessons from game theory, biology, and military history is the fragility of dominant positions – there is rarely a dominant strategy that trumps all possible options available to one’s adversaries.
Continue Reading→Gender and National Security Decision-Making
I had a very interesting conversation with a friend today on the role of gender in national security decision-making. Her argument was that was that the world would be a more peaceful place if more women were in senior positions within the national security establishment.
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