On August 20th, 2012 I interviewed JS to discuss her theory of adaptive realism and the intelligence community more generally. As with other interviews, our conversation was far reaching, open and discursive. Thus, the following summary presents several key points that came up in conversation rather than provide an exhaustive transcript of our exchange.
Continue Reading→Category: International Relations
The Story of this Blog… From International Relations to Evolution to Intelligence
Readers of this blog may have noted an apparent disconnect between the name denoting evolutionary perspectives on the international system and the heavy emphasis on intelligence analysis. Since starting this blog two years ago, I have been surprised by the shift in emphasis although the path connecting my interest in evolutionary theory, agent-based modeling and intelligence is a rather easy process to trace. I figured this would be a good time to document this path and explain how an initial commitment to complexity science and international relations theory has emphasized one of the least studied and examined parts of the field.
Continue Reading→Interview with Leon Fuerth
This post continues the series of interviews I performed during my dissertation research on Agent-Based Modeling, intelligence analysis and policy-making. My interview with Leon Fuerth was the first in the series, and provided me several insights that shaped my research and subsequent interviews (most of which have since been posted already). Importantly, this is one of three final interviews where the subject was not able to review the transcript and provide any clarifying remarks. While I do believe that my write up accurately captured his comments, it is possible that interpretive errors do exist that have not been corrected.
Continue Reading→For the Romney Campaign, was Election Night an Intelligence Failure?
I usually limit my writing to international relations rather than discuss domestic politics. However, I found the election results quite interesting when viewed through the lens of intelligence studies and the international system. The fact that the Romney campaign appeared to be legitimately surprised by the outcome reveals important patterns about the use and non-use of intelligence for those seeking to understand international relations and policy more generally. In what follows, I operate under the assumption that the Romney Campaign was indeed confident they would the election, and through a combination of psychological and organizational mechanisms left themselves vulnerable to surprise on election night. It is entirely possible that in time, new materials will come out that show the campaign to have been more reserved and cautious internally than currently believed.
Continue Reading→Kenneth Waltz, Iran and Nuclear Weapons
As I’ve been in the final months of completing my dissertation, I’ve had far less time to devote to the blog and topics that I’d like to spend more time thinking and writing about. While it is now beyond the news cycle, Kenneth Waltz’s recent essay in Foreign Affairs was quite interesting, but also misleading. At first glance, the policy prescriptive nature of the article was eye catching and challenging, and essentially continued his long-running debate with Scott Sagan and the rest of the international security studies community over the spread of nuclear weapons. The problem with Waltz’s argument, however, is less about his particular conclusions, than the broader problems of academic theory, models in general (both formal and informal), and their relevance to policy in the first place.
Continue Reading→Interview with John Hanley, Director of Strategy for the ODNI (retired)
Discussion with John Hanley (JH), Director of Strategy for Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI). Prior to joining ODNI, JH served as an officer in the US Navy and held senior positions in the DOD. I asked John broad questions that primarily focused on three topical areas – the difference between analysis and analytic communities within the DOD and Intelligence Community (IC) based on his experiences, his perspectives on the current state of the IC given his role and position within the ODNI, and general comparisons between intelligence analysis and academic scholarship. Note: since the time of this interview on February 9, 2012, Dr. Hanley has retired from the ODNI.
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