Modeling

Rock-Paper-Scissors and Arms Races Part 3

This post extends the mathematical model of the Rock-Paper-Scissors (RPS) game analyzed in earlier postings (here and here). In order to overcome the limitations of the mathematical model, an Agent-Based-Model (ABM) was developed that contains the essential elements and assumptions of the original model. However, by changing the formalism, new opportunities to extend the model become possible.

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International Relations, National Security

The Death of Usama Bin Laden Part 3

This is the third, and last posting about the killing of Usama Bin Laden (UBL) for a while (hopefully) before I return to more theoretical questions about arms races and modeling. Continuing my earlier posting, I believe there are many significant and complex issues that are just coming into focus and many more on the horizon regarding what comes next in US/Pakistan relations, the deterrence of terrorists, and the future of US strategy.

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Analysis, International Relations, National Security, Politics

The Death of Usama Bin Laden Part 2

It had been my intention to return to the development and exploration of the rock-paper-scissors model but the continuing news about Usama Bin Laden’s (UBL or OBL which appears to be the official spelling) death has me fascinated. After nearly a week’s passage, I’ve found several of the developments increasingly interesting and the number of issues at play continuously expanding. This is the first of two postings on the aftermath of the SEALs assault on UBL’s compound.

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