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International Relations, Health Care and Counterfactuals
May 8, 2013 | 
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As is often the case, work projects steer me away from my primary research interests and bring me into contact with new and often surprising problems. While on the surface, these problems may share little with the more familiar terrain of international relations, national security and intelligence analysis, often times a surprisingly deep conceptual connection can be found (or at least constructed). As it happens, our Advanced Analytics practice at LMI is working on extending our reach outside of national security into health care, which makes us typical for many firms that see the long-term budgetary trends and opportunities to transition technology, analytic skills, and other offerings into new markets Read the rest of this entry »
Interview with Carmen Medina
On June 5 and July 3 2012 I had the opportunity to talk with Carmen Medina (CM) in person and then follow-up with her over email correspondence. What follows is my summary of our extended discussion. As was the case with Leon Fuerth, CM did not have an opportunity to review my summary and correct any points that I may have misunderstood. Please keep that in mind when reading my characterization of her views in the event that I have misrepresented her ideas or experiences. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted in Analysis, Intelligence, Interviews | 
Tags: Carmen Medina, Intelligence Analysis, Producer/Consumer Relations | 
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The Story of this Blog… From International Relations to Evolution to Intelligence
Readers of this blog may have noted an apparent disconnect between the name denoting evolutionary perspectives on the international system and the heavy emphasis on intelligence analysis. Since starting this blog two years ago, I have been surprised by the shift in emphasis although the path connecting my interest in evolutionary theory, agent-based modeling and intelligence is a rather easy process to trace. I figured this would be a good time to document this path and explain how an initial commitment to complexity science and international relations theory has emphasized one of the least studied and examined parts of the field. Read the rest of this entry »
Interview with Leon Fuerth
This post continues the series of interviews I performed during my dissertation research on Agent-Based Modeling, intelligence analysis and policy-making. My interview with Leon Fuerth was the first in the series, and provided me several insights that shaped my research and subsequent interviews (most of which have since been posted already). Importantly, this is one of three final interviews where the subject was not able to review the transcript and provide any clarifying remarks. While I do believe that my write up accurately captured his comments, it is possible that interpretive errors do exist that have not been corrected. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted in Analysis, Intelligence, International Relations, Interviews, National Security | Tags: Intelligence Analysis, International Relations, Leon Fuerth, Policy, Producer/Consumer Relations | Comments Closed
Interview with Barry Leven
This interview was one of the longest of the several that I performed during my dissertation research. My conversation with Barry largely encapsulated a much longer and ongoing dialog that has been ongoing since he originally hired me at Booz Allen Hamilton when I graduated from college. While he retired from industry shortly after I started my career, we remain in contact and speak regularly. Thus, many of the questions and comments in the interview below hint at a larger exchange that started almost sixteen years ago and remain in development. Read the rest of this entry »
Some Thoughts About Handling Empirical Data in the Social Sciences
I was recently asked to review some grant applications for several social science research projects of relevance to national security. The applications are interesting and I've enjoyed seeing the proposal process from a new perspective. However, I've noted a common theme regarding the handling of data that I think is intuitively problematic with respect to theory building given my own interest in epistemology and the robustness of any claims that can be made from our research. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted in Analysis, History, Science | Tags: Data, Epistemology, Modeling, Robustness, Social Science | 1 Comment »
Interview with James Bruce, Senior Political Scientist, RAND
This post provides another summary from an interview I conducted as part of my dissertation research and is included in the Appendix of the final,now completed version. I have known Dr. Bruce since 1998 when I was a student of his at Georgetown. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted in Analysis, Intelligence, Interviews | Tags: Intelligence Analysis, James Bruce, Philosophy of Science, Social Science, Uncertainty | Comments Closed
Interview with Joseph Eash III
As my dissertation is reaching it's conclusion, I am working towards making more of its research accessible via the web. This post continues the series of interviews that I performed as part of that research on Agent-Based Modeling and intelligence analysis. In the interests of full-disclosure, Joe was my boss for more than three years (2001-2004) when I worked for him as a research associate in the Center for Technology and National Security Policy at National Defense University. Under's Joe's and Desmond Saunders-Newton's mentoring, I was introduced to Agent-Based Modeling and complexity theory. I owe Joe a special debt professionally and intellectually and am proud to have benefited from his mentoring. This interview was conducted on September 6, 2012. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted in Intelligence, Interviews, National Security, Science | Tags: Agent-Based Modeling, Desmond Saunders-Newton, Intelligence Analysis, Joseph Eash, Modeling, Natural Security, Producer/Consumer Relations, Social Science | Comments Closed
For the Romney Campaign, was Election Night an Intelligence Failure?
I usually limit my writing to international relations rather than discuss domestic politics. However, I found the election results quite interesting when viewed through the lens of intelligence studies and the international system. The fact that the Romney campaign appeared to be legitimately surprised by the outcome reveals important patterns about the use and non-use of intelligence for those seeking to understand international relations and policy more generally. In what follows, I operate under the assumption that the Romney Campaign was indeed confident they would the election, and through a combination of psychological and organizational mechanisms left themselves vulnerable to surprise on election night. It is entirely possible that in time, new materials will come out that show the campaign to have been more reserved and cautious internally than currently believed. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted in Analysis, Intelligence, International Relations, Politics | Tags: Intelligence Analysis, Intelligence Failure, International Relations, Mitt Romney, Prediction, Presidential Election, Producer/Consumer Relations, Uncertainty | Comments Closed
Report on Systemic Risk Conference now Available
This is a very brief update. A while back I posted about attending an international conference on systemic risks in the intentional system at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. An Interim Report from the conference is now available on the IIASA website for anyone who is interested. The report can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted in Admin, Conferences | Tags: IIASA, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Risk | Comments Closed
